|WSC 2011 Proceedings||Created 2012-1-10|
Monday 8:30 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.
Chair: K. Preston White (University of Virginia)
Beyond the Boundaries: Simulation and Transdisciplinarity
The process of designing, operationalizing, and deploying a successful simulation project often crosses several disciplines and requires extensive interaction between the developers and the end users. This talk will explore the often undocumented and intangible value of this transdiciplinary process. In fact, the process development models used by the simulation community are good templates for non-simulation projects in the human health, sustainability, and education arenas. The broader recognition of the value of the simulation building process will allow the simulation field to move beyond disciplinary and domain boundaries.
Monday 10:30 A.M. - 12:00 P.M.
ExtendSim Technology: Scenario Management
Simulation models are typically built to obtain an understanding of the system dynamics and compare alternatives. ExtendSims Scenario Manager provides an easy interface to evaluate different model configurations and explore the effects of model parameters. Scenario management provides for a systematic, controlled approach to the investigation of a system or process. Among other things, it can be used for problem solving ("what are the main factors contributing to the problem"), parameter design ("how well does the system/process perform given specified factors"), and robustness studies (what is the best configuration of factor values to maximize/minimize variations in response".) Thus it has a very broad application across all disciplines.
Monday 10:30 A.M. - 12:00 P.M.
Simulation Education Seven Reasons for Change
Simulation, once the magic wand of a simulation professional, has the opportunity to become a common tool for analyzing and solving real-world problems in todays fast paced, dynamic environment. Graduating students will have to be prepared to take advantage of that opportunity. Applying simulation today isnt like completing an exercise in a traditional text. Even case studies dont teach students how to actually solve real-world problems. There are good reasons to consider a change. The book "Applied Simulation Modeling and Analysis using Flexsim", in use for two years, supports a fresh approach for teaching simulation. Its organization, application techniques, blending of theory with practice, and the introduction of topics not normally covered in traditional texts make it different. This book is all about applying simulation.
Demo3D - "Software That Fits Your Comfort Zone"
As the range of uses for industrial simulation continues to evolve it is apparent that one size no longer fits all, if it ever did, in terms of building useful simulation models. Emulate3D products address this by offering users multiple means of defining product flow and operational logic. Creating flow around an initial layout to facilitate stakeholder discussion can be achieved by using Demo3D Control Blocks; enhanced control for occasional users is done using a drag and drop logic builder. Component builders and experienced modelers extend the bounds of their Demo3D models using Microsoft Jscript, while machine level control can be achieved using Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) ladder logic. Model builders can choose the control definition environment that is most natural for them.
Monday 1:30 P.M. - 3:00 P.M.
ProModel Simulation Solutions
You are undoubtedly familiar with ProModels ability to answer the tough questions around layout, bottlenecks, capacity planning and capital justification, but did you know that ProModel also has developed breakthrough technology that can greatly improve project and program management? Come see the latest ProModel innovations in both process simulation and project portfolio simulation. Find out how commercial enterprises and the Department of Defense are applying simulation to strategic resource capacity planning in a new paradigm.
Introduction to SIMIO
This paper describes the modeling system SimioTM- that is designed to simplify model building by promoting a modeling paradigm shift from the process orientation to an object orientation. Simio is a simulation modeling framework based on intelligent objects. The intelligent objects are built by modelers and then may be reused in multiple modeling projects. Although the Simio framework is focused on object-based modeling, it also supports a seamless use of multiple modeling paradigms including event, process, object, and agent-based modeling.
Monday 3:30 P.M. - 5:00 P.M.
Simulation based optimization: a comparison between black-box optimization systems
Real-world optimization problems are often difficult to formalize through a mathematical programming model. When the stochastic nature of real systems is coupled with the composite interaction of its variables, this regularly lead to formalize problems through simulation models in order to spot optimal settings for control variables. Such a search process grows in complexity as with as system modelling. However, only few candidate solutions can be considered when using simulation although several "what-if" scenario are compared. With black-box optimization techniques an optimal set of control variables is generated as a result of a process interaction with the simulation model. Tested on simulation models, the analysis performed by OptQuest and OptBlackBox - two black box optimization algorithms based on scatter-search and sequential penalty derivative-free search techniques, are presented.
SIMUL8 has its Head in the Cloud
The Cloud. It seems like its all we hear about these days, and its no wonder why. With the ability to work anywhere, share files easily, and collaborate efficiently the Cloud is becoming more and more important in todays business world. SIMUL8 was created to make simulation accessible to all, and were continuing with that mission by taking simulation into the Cloud. Come and hear how SIMUL8 is using the Cloud to provide simulations in your browser (download free), collaborative working, and much more.
Tuesday 8:30 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.
Arena Simulation Software
Visit us during WSC 2011 to learn more about Arena and our exciting new release that includes the innovative Arena Visual Designer tool and a glimpse at the new Arena graphic user interface. Users can quickly build realistic 3D animation and dynamic professional business graphic dashboards of their simulation models in an intuitive drag-and-drop environment. Amazing new visualization enhancements let users communicate the results of their simulation models easily and more effectively. These changes bring enhanced flexibility, ease of use and best-of-breed visualization using the most advanced software development technology. And you have confidence knowing that these enhancements were built upon the solid, proven foundation of Arenas trusted simulation engine and familiar modeling paradigm.
AUTOMOD Providing Simulation Solutions for over 25 Years
Decision making in industry has become more complicated in recent years. Customers are more demanding, competition is fierce, and costs for labor and raw materials continue to rise. Managers need state-of-the-art tools to help in planning, design, and operations of their facilities. Simulation provides a virtual factory where ideas can be tested and performance improved. The AutoMod product suite from Applied Materials has been used on thousands of projects to help engineers and managers make the best decisions possible. Come see the latest AutoMod release of one of the most widely used simulation software packages.
Tuesday 8:30 A.M. - 10:00 A.M.
Solve ANY Transportation, Logistics, or Supply Chain problem with ANYLOGIC
Transportation design challenges? Logistics optimization issue? Supply chain problems? We've got it covered! The new AnyLogic smart object libraries take you to a whole new level of power and speed in simulating and solving these problems. Whether you're a traffic engineer, supply-chain expert, consultant or researcher you will appreciate how quickly you can develop complex models with the new AnyLogic 6.7. AnyLogic is the only tool that combines all of the basic approaches: agent-based, discrete event and system dynamics into one powerful, graphical, development environment. AnyLogic simply gives you more tools/languages/techniques allowing you to make your simulation more closely resemble the physical system-which is the whole point, right? Now we add to this toolset by providing three powerful smart object libraries so that you can very quickly create simulations of pedestrian, traffic, and rail movement. You can readily combine these objects into a multi-mode transportation simulation.
Tuesday 10:30 A.M. - 12:00 P.M.
Integrated Data Mining, Simulation and Optimization in Microsoft Excel
Predictive and prescriptive analytics is a new focus for many companies, and simulation models are often part but not all of the analytics. This session will demonstrate Risk Solver Platform, an integrated toolset for forecasting and data mining, Monte Carlo simulation and risk analysis, and conventional and stochastic optimization from Frontline Systems, developers of the Excel Solver and new owners of XLMiner. Since it works in Microsoft Excel, where so much corporate data and models already live, and it includes wizards to help build, and tools to diagnose user models, Risk Solver Platform offers an easier, faster, lower cost and risk on ramp to modern analytics, without the complexity and high cost of enterprise solutions. Yet it offers simulation performance that rivals custom-written programs, plus easy ways to embed models in applications running on servers or in the cloud. CDs with software, tutorials and free trial licenses will be available.
Recent Innovations in SIMIO
This paper briefly describes Simio(TM) simulation software, a simulation modeling framework based on intelligent objects. It then describes a few of the many recent enhancements and innovations including new, easier object-building technology, SMORE charts that allow unprecedented insight into your simulation output, sophisticated built-in experimentation that incorporates multi-processor support and optimization, and simulation-based planning and scheduling with risk analysis.
Tuesday 10:30 A.M. - 12:00 P.M.
Flexsim Healthcare 3D Simulation Software
Flexsim HC is the only discrete event simulation software designed specifically for healthcare and patient flow modeling. Flexsim HC easily models all healthcare operations from emergency department, clinics, OR/PACU, floor units, pharmacy and labs. During this presentation you will see what it takes to build a model, look at results and run experiments. Flexsim HC uses patent pending technology that allows the user to model complex patient flows without the need for programing. Those that attend will be given free evaluation software. Flexsim invites you to preview the most innovative 3D healthcare simulation software ever created.
Experimentation, Exploration, and Simulation with JMP and SAS Simulation Studio
SAS Institute, JMP Division. Experimentation, Exploration, and Simulation with JMP and SAS Simulation Studio Brady Brady, email@example.com and Ed Hughes, firstname.lastname@example.org JMP, developed by SAS Institute, is both a desktop tool for data analysis and visualization and a flexible SAS client. JMP provides integrated graphs and statistics, along with an array of analytic tools. JMP provides robust distribution fitting, a complete selection of experimental designs, and an Excel Add-In for working with Excel data and exploring models using the JMP profiler. SAS Simulation Studio for JMP is a platform for modeling, analyzing, and understanding systems through discrete event simulation. The point and click graphical user interface provides a full set of tools for building and executing models. JMP is fully integrated with Simulation Studio, enabling you to design and conduct efficient experiments, collect data, and easily analyze and visualize simulation results using JMP graphics, the profiler, and Monte Carlo simulations.
Tuesday 1:30 P.M. - 3:00 P.M.
Making simulation accessible to healthcare users
Simulation has been widely applied by the academic community in Healthcare but it is by no means routinely used to support decision-making. The SIMUL8 healthcare team have developed healthcare specific generic products aimed at answering important questions for healthcare, together with a series of demonstration models, published in online journals to allow potential healthcare users to experiment with using simulations and better understand how they could benefit their organizations. During the presentation we will discuss our experience of using these products and what can be learned about engaging a non-simulation audience and the key features required for successful simulation in healthcare.
How the ExpertFit Distribution-Fitting Software Can Make Your Simulation Models More Valid
In this paper, we discuss the critical role of simulation input modeling in a successful simulation study. Two pitfalls in simulation input modeling are then presented and we explain how any analyst, regardless of their knowledge of statistics, can easily avoid these pitfalls through the use of the ExpertFit distribution-fitting software. We use a set of real-world data to demonstrate how the software automatically specifies and ranks probability distributions, and then tells the analyst whether the best candidate distribution is actually a good representation of the data. If no dis-tribution provides a good fit, then ExpertFit can define an empirical distribution. In either case, the selected distribution is put into the proper format for direct input to the analysts simulation software.
Tuesday 1:30 P.M. - 3:00 P.M.
Expert Modeling for a Sustainable World with Analytica
Experienced analysts create Analytica models to illuminate possible paths to a more sustainable World by exploring complex problems in energy, environment, and economics. They prefer Analytica to other tools because of its visual influence diagrams, Intelligent Arrays, fast Monte Carlo, and easy scalability. Users say that they can build, verify, and analyze models in a quarter the time it takes with a spreadsheet -- with results that are dramatically more transparent. It's also an ideal tool for teaching students the art of decision-focused simulation. We will illustrate how to build creating simple models with Analytica. We'll also use the Analytica Transportation Energy Assessment Model (ATEAM) to explore possible futures for the automobile in the USA. How can new vehicle technologies, fuels, and policies affect the US fleet, and reduce GHG emissions and oil imports? Use scenarios, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to develop real insights into this critical problem.
Effective Plant Utilization and Capacity Optimization
Tecnomatix is a full featured suite of digital manufacturing software tools that drive productivity in both manufacturing planning and manufacturing production. Learn how Tecnomatix Plant Design & Optimization improves collaboration among cross-functional teams through effective communication of factory design principles and the use of standardized resources within a managed, collaborative data environment. We will highlight the latest capabilities of Plant Simulation and show how it can optimize material flow, resource utilization, throughput and logistics at all levels of the global planning process.
Tuesday 3:30 P.M. - 5:00 P.M.
Redefining Off-line Programming with 3DAutomate
Visual Components, a pioneer in 3D factory simulation solutions and a leading global provider of a powerful suite of simulation software, has taken the science to the next level with their newest and most dynamic simulation software: 3DAutomate. 3D factory simulation has been the revolutionary breakthrough technology that has given machine builders, system integrators, and manufacturers around the world a simple, quick, and highly cost-effective way to build and simulate their total process solutions. It allows users to build virtual factory layouts using readily available, re-usable components from existing libraries, and then bring those layouts to life in very accurate simulations, showing how the manufacturing lines will actually work. 3DAutomate has been created to simulate large and more complex factory layouts, such as automotive assembly plants, which are much more difficult to visualize due to their complexity.
How to convert your desktop simulation into a sharable web simulation using Forio Simulate
Forio Simulate allow modelers to develop and present simulations on the Web with no programming. During this 50 minute workshop, Michael Bean will demonstrate how to create web simulations, discuss commonly occurring web simulation design challenges and potential solutions, and show examples of web simulations that have been used by thousands of users. Michael will also provide a series of guidelines for creating simulations online. Forio Simulate can import models from Any Logic, Excel, Vensim, iThink and other desktop simulation packages.
Tuesday 3:30 P.M. - 5:00 P.M.
Introduction to SAS Simulation Studio
An overview is presented of SAS Simulation Studio, an object-oriented, Java-based application for building and analyzing discrete-event simulation models. Emphasis is given to Simulation Studio's hierarchical, entity-based approach to resource modeling, which facilitates the creation of realistic simulation models for systems with complicated resource requirements, such as preemption. Also discussed are the various ways that Simulation Studio is integrated with SAS and JMP for data management, distribution fitting, and experimental design.
Agent-based systems in SimEvents
SimEvents with Simulink and Stateflow provides discrete-event simulation capabilities suitable for agent-based and hybrid-system modeling. SimEvents incorporates discrete-event network or process flow formalisms into the modeling of continuous and discrete-time dynamic systems within Simulink. Additionally, Stateflow introduces state-chart syntax for efficiently expressing complex event-transition behavior. Together these tools allow you to design distributed control systems, hardware architectures, and sensor and communication networks, as well as optimize processes within logistics and operations planning. In this talk, we will demonstrate how SimEvents provides a scalable and extensible approach for modeling the behavior of agent-based systems. We illustrate how complex agents can be modeled as entity flows within SimEvents, while additionally customizing their autonomous behavior using a combination of dynamic-system and state-chart modeling. We also illustrate how such simulations may be used to optimize the underlying processes and define resource requirements during the design phase of complex applications.
Sunday 12:00 P.M. - 12:45 P.M.
Ph.D. Colloquium Luncheon (Final Years)
Chair: Ali Tafazzoli (Metron Aviation)
Sunday 1:00 P.M. - 2:00 P.M.
PhD Colloquium Keynote
Chair: Ali Tafazzoli (Metron Aviation)
On Innovation, and Building and Sustaining a Successful Career in Research
Innovation and the generation of new knowledge are fundamental research goals. As such, proficiency in these areas is essential to becoming a successful researcher. Yet, although a principal goal of graduate school is to train students to become effective researchers, innovation is seldom explicitly discussed. The goal of this article is to fill this gap. Specifically, I provide some insights into the process of innovation and suggest activities that may help to increase ones capacity for innovative thought, and ultimately, help build a successful, sustained career in research.
Sunday 2:15 P.M. - 3:30 P.M.
Ph.D. Colloquium Student Presentations - Analysis/Modeling Methodology
Chair: Ali Tafazzoli (Metron Aviation)
Sampling Laws for Stochastically Constrained Simulation Optimization on Finite Sets
We consider the context of identifying the best system from amongst a finite set of competing systems, based on a "stochastic" objective function and subject to multiple "stochastic" constraints. In this context, we characterize the effect of sample allocation on the rate at which the probability of selecting a suboptimal system tends to zero. This characterization leads to asymptotically optimal sample allocation rules for the context of general light-tailed distributions and for the context in which the objective function and constraints may be observed together as multivariate normal random variables. Toward aiding implementation, we provide consistent estimators and corresponding sequential sampling algorithms in both contexts. Future work includes extensions that incorporate the constraints into a revised objective function.
Sequential Bayes-Optimal Policies for Multiple Comparisons with a Control
We consider the problem of efficiently allocating simulation effort to determine which of several simulated systems have mean performance exceeding a known threshold. This determination is known as multiple comparisons with a control. Within a Bayesian formulation, the optimal fully sequential policy for allocating simulation effort is the solution to a dynamic program. We show that this dynamic program can be solved efficiently, providing a tractable way to compute the Bayes-optimal policy. The solution uses techniques from optimal stopping and multi-armed bandits. We then present further theoretical results characterizing this Bayes-optimal policy, compare it numerically to several approximate policies, and apply it to an application in ambulance positioning.
Enhancing Stochastic Kriging Metamodels with Gradient Estimators
Stochastic kriging is a new metamodeling technique proposed for effectively representing the mean response surface implied by a stochastic simulation; it takes into account both stochastic simulation noise and uncertainty about the underlying response surface of interest. We show theoretically through some simplified models that incorporating gradient estimates into stochastic kriging tends to enforce known properties of the response surface and significantly improves surface prediction. To address the important issue of which type of gradient estimator to use, we begin with a brief review of stochastic gradient estimation techniques and their respective pros and cons; then we focus on the properties of the IPA and LR/SF gradient estimators displayed in stochastic kriging metamodels and make our recommendations. To conclude, we propose a new experimental design and demonstrate the ideas through some simulation experiments.
A Bayesian Approach to Stochastic Root Finding
A stylized model of one-dimensional stochastic root finding involves repeatedly querying an oracle as to whether the root lies to the left or right of a prescribed point x. The oracle answers this question, but the received answer is incorrect with probability 1-p(x). A Bayesian-motivated algorithm for this problem that assumes knowledge of p(.) repeatedly updates a density giving, in some sense, one's belief about the location of the root. We demonstrate how the algorithm works, and provide some results that shed light on its performance, both when p(.) is constant and when p(.) varies with x.
Sunday 2:15 P.M. - 3:30 P.M.
Ph.D. Colloquium Student Presentations - Manufacturing, Logistics & Healthcare
Chair: Andreas Tolk (Old Dominion University)
Hierarchical Simulation Modeling Framework for Electrical Power Quality and Operational Decision-Making
A two level hierarchical simulation modeling framework is proposed for electric power networks involving solar generators, various storage units (batteries and compressed air), and grid connection. The high level model which is based on system dynamics and agent-based modeling concerns operational decision making from a utility company perspective, (e.g. determined price for customers; energy amount to buy from grid) and defining regulations (e.g. maximum load during peak hours) for customers for a reduced cost and enhanced reliability. The lower level model which is based on agent-based modeling and circuit-level continuous time modeling, concerns changes in power quality factors and changes in demand behavior caused by customers response to operational decisions and regulations made by the utility company. An integration and coordination framework is developed, which details the sequence and frequency of interactions between two models and a case study involving real data from utility company is described.
Agent Based Simulation Design for Aggregation and Disaggregation
This paper proposes a framework for designing an agent based simulation to allow for easy aggregation and/or disaggregation of agent characteristics, behaviors, and interactions using a supply chain modeling context. Guidelines are provided for designing agent structure to demonstrate scalability in terms of fidelity to fit the needs of the analysis. The design methodology is based on combining hierarchical modeling with data-driven modeling. Related work done in variable-resolution modeling is a generalization for any modeling technique, while our proposed guidelines are specific for development of agent based models.
Compatibility of Work and Private Life through Socially Acceptable Working Time Configuration
Hospitals have to ensure continuous medical monitoring and care. Therefore, they have to be staffed 7 days a week for 24 hours. However, this may lead to conflicts between work and private lives of the employees. To reduce these conflicts, this research deals with the organization of socially acceptable working times. In order to improve an existing working time configuration, an agent-based approach has been developed. Within this approach, several optimization strategies have been implemented. To prove the efficiency of the developed approach, new key figures (e.g. rate of satisfaction) have been developed. In addition, a personnel-oriented simulation procedure is used which allows for a realistic modelling of hospital departments